Forecasting of Fusarium head blight and deoxynivalenol content in winter wheat with FusaProg

Fusarium head blight is one of the most serious cereal diseases of the world. Epidemics of Fusarium head blight can lead to a decline in grain quality and yield. In addition, grains often become contaminated with mycotoxins, which are harmful to humans and animals. In a field survey of winter wheat in Switzerland, Fusarium graminearum proved to be the most prevalent species responsible for head blight and deoxynivalenol the most common mycotoxin. To elucidate and quantify single or combined effects of cropping factors on F. graminearum infestation and to reduce the risk of mycotoxin contamination of wheat under conservation tillage, we developed the decision support system FusaProg. Our model takes into account the effects of cropping factors, previous crops, soil and straw management, as well as the F. graminearum susceptibility of the planted variety. These factors are used as driving variables and are combined with the prevailing weather conditions and growth stage in order to predict the deoxynivalenol content of a specific wheat plot before harvest. To use FusaProg as a threshold-based tool to control F. graminearum with optimized timing of fungicide applications, forecasts of deoxynivalenol contents are conducted during the flowering period. FusaProg is an Internet-based decision support system which not only provides information about the local and regional F. graminearum infection risks; it also forecasts plot-specific deoxynivalenol contamination of winter wheat. In 2006, the system was evaluated by Swiss cantonal plant protection officers, and in 2007, the system will be made available to Swiss wheat producers.